pinback wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2019 2:09 pm
The NFL isn't fixed, it's broken.
AArdvark wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2019 3:38 pm
Oh, you! You know what I mean
I was thinking the same thing but Pinback beat me to it, Although I might have said "irreparably broken."
As for being corrupted, which is what 'Vark originally was referring to, in both posts, let me look at this for a moment.
AArdvark wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:21 pm
is not obviously, hilariously fixed like the NFL
Is this really a thing? If so, do they change the outcomes based on sports betting odds, like the New York daily lottery and Pick10?
I think you're saying New York's lottery recalculates the payoff amounts (presumably to lower them) if some numbers get too popular. And you wonder if perhaps professional football teams change their play or performance based on the change in odds. I'll answer that in my following response.
AArdvark wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:21 pm
What clues should I be watching for to determine for myself that the games are fixed?
What I want to say first is too many people when suspecting something, tend to discard Occam's Razor, and "when they hear hoof beats, think zebras rather than horses." Now, any significant change to professional football operations, or hell, even amateur ones in college or high school, would require the involvement, and knowledge, of many people. The players would have to know when not to score or what limits not to exceed. Coaches would have to tell them what to do and what not to. Whoever wants to rig the games would have to tell coaches how to play, and possibly others touting the game would have to do so, as well as spread opposite information in order to encourage bets on the team chosen to lose. (Which either brings in more money to them if taking bets, or increases the odds if they are placing them.)
First, this is the classic definition of a conspiracy. "The act of two or more persons, called conspirators, working secretly to obtain some goal, usually understood with negative connotations."
The key word here is "secretly." If it becomes known, people might start betting the opposite way, which could spoil the plans of whoever wants to fix these games. There are just too many people needing to be involved for this to remain a secret.
Second, there is also the Latin expression "Cui bono?"
which translates to "Who benefits?" The NFL has been against sports betting for a long time, in fact all sports associations have been against it. In some cases I think the NBA tried to go after score reporting services - which sports books have to have to compute odds - by claiming real-time reporting of scores of games in progress violated their copyright. The courts saw through that as an attempt to copyright facts,
which are uncopyrightable.
If you actually pay attention to one of those copyright warnings they give during a professional game about all he things you can't repeat or republish, the one thing they don't mention is the running score.
Third, I don't think the owners would be involved, there's already a lot of money to be made in running legitimate, clean contests. There might be some assistance being given to bettors by supplying injury statistics, but that is tangential and is probably more related to allowing fans to know why a specific athlete is not playing rather than them coming up with their own speculations. ("Hey did you know John Doe, linebacker for the Skunks, hasn't been playing for two weeks now? I thought he was playing badly before. I'll bet he's out doing rehab for his coke addiction.")
Fourth, there are too many reporters covering professional sports for something this juicy a story to remain secret for long. It would be a major scandal. Look what happened to Pete Rose, although part of the outrage might be because he bet on his own team.
Is professional wrestling fixed? Of course, everyone knows it is, but the one important thing that makes it funny rather than totally corrupt, is who is going to win on any night is kept secret. (Frankly, if it was known there'd be no reason to watch. This of course presumes there is anyone with an IQ above room temperature to watch professional wrestling.)
So even at that it's well known pro wrestling has fixed outcomes, no such reports about any other professional sports have surfaced. Thus I think it's not probable at this time that NFL football has any issues with game fixing.