Masters: First Round Analysis

FIRST ROUND SCORING ANALYSIS, based solely on how it affects Tiger Woods.

After the first round, Tiger stands at even par, tied for 19th, and four shots back of the leaders.

The appropriate description for Tiger’s first round is “not good, not bad”, although fans should definitely feel grateful that it could have been worse. After plodding along at par all day, he bogeyed two holes in a row (including a par 5 that he had a clear shot to the green on his second shot and managed to completely botch the hole). This was the point at which I cancelled this thread. However, being Mr. Bounceback, he then chipped in from 25 feet on the 15th hole for an eagle, bringing him back to even par.

The bad news is that he is four back of the lead. The good news is that he is within two shots of all but five players.

Now let’s look at where we stand, and what this means for Tiger’s chances the rest of the tournament:

2 players at -4.
3 players at -3.
5 players at -2 (so he is within 1 shot of all but 10 players)
8 players at -1.
14 players at E (including Tiger)

I am going to go ahead and say that unless Tiger plays like crap, nobody who finished worse than him has a chance, so that basically narrows the 94-man field down to 31 players who still have a shot at it.

Let’s run down all 31 players, and assess their “threat level” (how much of a genuine chance they have, given current/past performance.)

1. Justin Rose (-4) – Ranked #9 in the world, a strong player, who has a history of starting strong at the Masters. However, in 3 previous strong starts, he has faded quickly. THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

2. Trevor Immelman (-4) – Ranked #29 in the world, I think he probably just had a really good day. THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM-LOW

3. Brian Bateman (-3) – WHO?? THREAT LEVEL: NONE

4. Brandt Snedeker (-3) – Ranked #44 in the world. I gotta think anyone outside the top 30 has no chance whatsoever. THREAT LEVEL: LOW

5. Lee Westwood (-3) – Good player. #19 in the world. THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

6. Ian Poulter (-2) – Famous for saying he’s gonna be the only one to threaten Tiger for the #1 world ranking. Famous also for being the guy I had a dream would be leading the first round when I woke up, and he was. Famous also for only being -2 because he got a hole in one today. #24 in the world, but I don’t see it happening. THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM-LOW.

7. Robert Karllson (-2) – Huh? THREAT LEVEL: NONE

8. Zach Johnson (-2) – WON the Masters last year, a win most considered a fluke, and nothing since then has changed that perception. THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM

9. Stephen Ames (-2) – Ranked #31, famous for getting trounced by Tiger after he made a stupid comment. No chance. THREAT LEVEL: NO CHANCE

10. Jim Furyk (-2) – #7 in the world. Most disgusting swing on tour, but the dude can play. THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

11. Heath Slocum (-1) – What kinda name is Heath Slocum? THREAT LEVEL: NONE

12. Mark O’Meara (-1) – Tiger’s best buddy. There’s no way Tiger will allow him to win. Also, too old and fat. THREAT LEVEL: NONE

13. Peter Lonard (-1) – #46 in the world, too old. THREAT LEVEL: NONE

14. Arron Oberholser (-1) – Unremarkable. THREAT LEVEL: LOW

15. Jeev Singh (-1) – Isn’t one Singh enough to deal with? THREAT LEVEL: LOW

16. Paul Casey (-1) – Lots of middle-of-the-road foreigners up in this list. THREAT LEVEL: LOW

17. Retief Goosen (-1) – Used to be one of the best players on the planet. Fallen to #27, but you wonder when the magic will come back. THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM

18. Phil Mickelson (-1) – FUCK LEFTY. THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

19. Justin Leonard (E) – Too middle-of-the-road and goofy looking. THREAT LEVEL: LOW

20. Robert Allenby (E) – See: Paul Casey. THREAT LEVEL: LOW

21. Jerry Kelly (E) – Had a good run several years ago, but those times are behind him. THREAT LEVEL: LOW

22. Johnson Wagner (E) – Only in the Masters cuz he won some two-bit tournament this year that nobody but grandmothers played in. THREAT LEVEL: NONE

23. Steve Flesch (E) – Ranked #107 in the world. Bye. THREAT LEVEL: NONE

24. Boo Weekley (E) – Boo Weekley, the dumb country bumpkin that everyone loves to love. They just won’t get to love him in a green jacket. THREAT LEVEL: NONE

25. Sean O’Hair (E) – Too scarred from an overbearing father to ever come through in the big ones. THREAT LEVEL: NONE

26. Sandy Lyle (E) – The dude is like a thousand years old. THREAT LEVEL: NONE

27. Daniel Chopra (E) – I thought he wrote spiritual books. THREAT LEVEL: NONE

28. Vijay Singh (E) – FUCK LEFTY AND FUCK VIJAY. THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

29. Stewart Cink (E) – Been playing very very well this year. #14 in the world, and on the rise. THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

30. Andres Romero (E) – Andrwho Romerwho? THREAT LEVEL: WHO?

31. K. J. Choi (E) – He loves three things: Jesus Christ, playing golf, and not speaking English. #6 in the world. Very strong. THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

So if we look through this list, and weed out everyone less threatening than medium, we’re left with these nine douchebags who need to be taken care of:

Justin Rose
Lee Westwood
Zach Johnson
Jim Furyk
Retief Goosen
Phil Mickelson
Vijay Singh
Stewart Cink
K.J. Choi

Only two are more than two shots ahead, only four are more than one shot ahead, and only six are ahead of Tiger at all. So if you want to paint the prettiest picture possible, this is it:

He’s only got six reasonable contenders ahead of him, and not all that far, so if he can just pick off two of those per day, we’re good to go.

That’s the prettiest picture I can paint for you. If tomorrow goes any worse than today, though, we’re gonna have a problem.