by Tdarcos » Wed Nov 10, 2021 8:25 pm
Casual Observer wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:07 pm
Jizaboz wrote: Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:36 am
Now is not the time to be buying a computer.
..or a PS5
..or a car
..or anything with a chip in it made after 2012.
Ooh, please tell me more. Is it China?
No, it's Taiwan. There are only two manufacturers of 7 nanometer chips: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur8ing Company (TSMC) and Samsung. Intel has been trying to get there, but they can't seem to break the 10NM barrier. They want to develop 5NM chips and are going to be spending about $100 billion to build 10 new fabs. But TSMC is also going to spend $100 bil to make new fabs.
A world-class chip fabrication plant costs about $10 billion and will take about two years to build. Intel is building one in Prescott, AZ near another major manufacturer whom I've forgotten.
The problem is the supply chain, a complex linkage of suppliers and customers where each one provides a part of the whole puzzle. There are approximately 700 steps involved in turning sand into processor chips. Nobody actually knows how to make processor chips starting from sand, they each know how to do one thing, and eventually it all comes together and processors get made. Covid-19 broke the supply chain for everything, and until things catch up, it's going to take a while to rebuild it. So there is going to be shortages in everything, probably until 2022 or '23, depending on how long it takes to rebuild the logistics networks of the supply chains.
For example, truck drivers are only paid by the mile or by the load, at least for non-union drivers and independents. It used to be possible to get in and out of a port in maybe 2 hours. Now, it's taking so long due to delays that they can lose an entire day. Which they aren't getting paid for. Which means fewer trucks will accept loads from or to major seaports unless paid a premium. Which raises the cost of the goods. Truck drivers ain't stupid; they aren't going to take a load they lose money on. At least, not more than once. So either they pay more to drivers or loads aren't getting off the docks except verry slooowly.
[quote="Casual Observer" post_id=125037 time=1636585666 user_id=77]
[quote=Jizaboz post_id=125021 time=1636529807 user_id=910]
Now is not the time to be buying a computer.
..or a PS5
..or a car
..or anything with a chip in it made after 2012.
[/quote]
Ooh, please tell me more. Is it China?
[/quote]
No, it's Taiwan. There are only two manufacturers of 7 nanometer chips: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur8ing Company (TSMC) and Samsung. Intel has been trying to get there, but they can't seem to break the 10NM barrier. They want to develop 5NM chips and are going to be spending about $100 billion to build 10 new fabs. But TSMC is also going to spend $100 bil to make new fabs.
A world-class chip fabrication plant costs about $10 billion and will take about two years to build. Intel is building one in Prescott, AZ near another major manufacturer whom I've forgotten.
The problem is the supply chain, a complex linkage of suppliers and customers where each one provides a part of the whole puzzle. There are approximately 700 steps involved in turning sand into processor chips. Nobody actually knows how to make processor chips starting from sand, they each know how to do one thing, and eventually it all comes together and processors get made. Covid-19 broke the supply chain for everything, and until things catch up, it's going to take a while to rebuild it. So there is going to be shortages in everything, probably until 2022 or '23, depending on how long it takes to rebuild the logistics networks of the supply chains.
For example, truck drivers are only paid by the mile or by the load, at least for non-union drivers and independents. It used to be possible to get in and out of a port in maybe 2 hours. Now, it's taking so long due to delays that they can lose an entire day. Which they aren't getting paid for. Which means fewer trucks will accept loads from or to major seaports unless paid a premium. Which raises the cost of the goods. Truck drivers ain't stupid; they aren't going to take a load they lose money on. At least, not more than once. So either they pay more to drivers or loads aren't getting off the docks except verry slooowly.