126,848 and counting
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2002 9:17 pm
Just how big is Fort Collins?
"It must be about 450,000," Nancy Stice said last week while putting groceries into her car after shopping at Albertson's, 731 S. Lemay Ave.
"At least it seems that way because of the traffic. I know I have to sit through some lights at least twice before I can get through." Stice paused and than added with a smile, "I also have seven children and No. 8 on the way."
The actual number is closer to 127,000, but that doesn't begin to tell the whole story.
Stice's booming family is indicative of Fort Collins -- the city has seen constant growth for more than a decade. And despite predictions of a slowdown in the new millennium, the city's growth the past two years is tracking about the same rate -- 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent annually -- as during the torrid 1990s. It is a continuing trend of booming population that started at least 100 years ago.
A burgeoning city brings with it all the complaints associated with growth -- traffic, crowds, more development, less open space. And the numbers can often mask the underlying issues that surround growth.
Northern Colorado saw an economic boom from 1990 to 2000, but the 2000 census found Fort Collins still had significant poverty and a number of residents living from paycheck to paycheck.
The census found 15,835 residents, or 14 percent of the Fort Collins population, were living in poverty.
The census also found wages were growing with the population, but so too were housing prices.
And growth can make the city seem bigger than it is.
Shirley Rodriquez, also shopping at Albertson's last week, guessed the population was 340,000.
Lucas Bischoff, a bell ringer for the Salvation Army posted at the same grocery store, figured it's "about 130,000 if you count the (Colorado State University) students."
Ken Waido, the city's chief planner, estimated the city's population is close to 126,848. He makes his estimates so the city can make accurate revenue projections.
Waido uses a formula based on the number of new housing unit permits issued, the city's vacancy rate and a standard of 2.45 people per household.
"It's not rocket science," Waido said, laughing.
The state demographer's office, which also tracks populations in counties and municipalities, doesn't dispute Waido's estimate.
Richard Lin, the state's estimate demographer, said he uses a variety of county data including births, deaths, student enrollment, employment statistics and other information. That information is then compared with city data.
His estimate for 2002 won't be made until early next year, but Lin said the state's estimate generally is "pretty close" to the city's and he doesn't expect anything dramatically different this year.
In 2001, for instance, the city's estimate was 122,377. The state demographer's was 122,521.
Meanwhile, the city continues to grow despite indicators that pointed to a tapering off. And so does the county. The 2000 census pegged Larimer County's population at 251,494.
When asked why we keep growing when the national economy is shaky, local sales- and use-tax collections are declining, and many firms are trimming jobs, Waido just laughed.
"I guess there's an Economics 101 professor somewhere pulling his hair out trying to explain that," Waido said.
Does that mean this trend will continue?
"Obviously, if you don't have job growth, it would be hard to imagine how the market could stay as strong," Waido said.
But, the planner added, the state demographer's office "in the long term is projecting Colorado will do better than the United States and that Northern Colorado will do better than the state as a whole."
"It must be about 450,000," Nancy Stice said last week while putting groceries into her car after shopping at Albertson's, 731 S. Lemay Ave.
"At least it seems that way because of the traffic. I know I have to sit through some lights at least twice before I can get through." Stice paused and than added with a smile, "I also have seven children and No. 8 on the way."
The actual number is closer to 127,000, but that doesn't begin to tell the whole story.
Stice's booming family is indicative of Fort Collins -- the city has seen constant growth for more than a decade. And despite predictions of a slowdown in the new millennium, the city's growth the past two years is tracking about the same rate -- 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent annually -- as during the torrid 1990s. It is a continuing trend of booming population that started at least 100 years ago.
A burgeoning city brings with it all the complaints associated with growth -- traffic, crowds, more development, less open space. And the numbers can often mask the underlying issues that surround growth.
Northern Colorado saw an economic boom from 1990 to 2000, but the 2000 census found Fort Collins still had significant poverty and a number of residents living from paycheck to paycheck.
The census found 15,835 residents, or 14 percent of the Fort Collins population, were living in poverty.
The census also found wages were growing with the population, but so too were housing prices.
And growth can make the city seem bigger than it is.
Shirley Rodriquez, also shopping at Albertson's last week, guessed the population was 340,000.
Lucas Bischoff, a bell ringer for the Salvation Army posted at the same grocery store, figured it's "about 130,000 if you count the (Colorado State University) students."
Ken Waido, the city's chief planner, estimated the city's population is close to 126,848. He makes his estimates so the city can make accurate revenue projections.
Waido uses a formula based on the number of new housing unit permits issued, the city's vacancy rate and a standard of 2.45 people per household.
"It's not rocket science," Waido said, laughing.
The state demographer's office, which also tracks populations in counties and municipalities, doesn't dispute Waido's estimate.
Richard Lin, the state's estimate demographer, said he uses a variety of county data including births, deaths, student enrollment, employment statistics and other information. That information is then compared with city data.
His estimate for 2002 won't be made until early next year, but Lin said the state's estimate generally is "pretty close" to the city's and he doesn't expect anything dramatically different this year.
In 2001, for instance, the city's estimate was 122,377. The state demographer's was 122,521.
Meanwhile, the city continues to grow despite indicators that pointed to a tapering off. And so does the county. The 2000 census pegged Larimer County's population at 251,494.
When asked why we keep growing when the national economy is shaky, local sales- and use-tax collections are declining, and many firms are trimming jobs, Waido just laughed.
"I guess there's an Economics 101 professor somewhere pulling his hair out trying to explain that," Waido said.
Does that mean this trend will continue?
"Obviously, if you don't have job growth, it would be hard to imagine how the market could stay as strong," Waido said.
But, the planner added, the state demographer's office "in the long term is projecting Colorado will do better than the United States and that Northern Colorado will do better than the state as a whole."